How To Analyze Demographic Data Before Investing

When it comes to real estate investment, there are many factors that should be considered before taking the leap. Investors often speak of the general economic conditions as their main impetus for investing or holding back. However, this should not be the only criteria that you work under. Demographics should also be very carefully considered. Here are three reasons to analyze demographic data before investing in real estate.

Age and Spending Habits

You might think that a younger, more vibrant population is where the money is, but you may be wrong. Consider the fact that a twenty-something is likely to have student loans, very little savings, and less experience in making sound financial decisions. Not only that but, younger people are less likely to have the funds and stable career that it takes to buy a home.

Financial newsletter writer, Harry S. Dent, Jr. has done some impressive research that reveals that human spending habits follow a predictable path. Most notably, spending on homes hits its peak between the ages of 46 and 50. Therefore, if the demographics show a population in that range, it may be a good indicator of a viable market should you be interested in flipping an investment property.

Jobs and Population Growth

Simply put, if people cannot find a good job, they are not going to be able to buy or rent a home. That also means that the population in the area is likely to decline, rather than grow. Take a good, hard look at the trends in employment in and around the area you are thinking about investing in. Dig into those numbers and look for indicators that the population and job opportunities are changing.

Rentals vs. Owner Occupied

Another important demographic that you need to take a look at is the percentage of rental homes versus those that are owner occupied. If you’re most interested in buying, remodeling and flipping houses, you’re going to want to look at areas where the owner occupancy is higher. Likewise, if you’re looking for an income property, a predominantly rental oriented area may be best.

Although you’ll get some indication of the viability of a rental or flip from that data, it doesn’t tell the whole story. You also want to know what the rental occupancy rate and average rental rate are so you can determine whether or not you can recoup your investment. If you’re flipping, you’ll want to know the average home sales price so that you can manage your investment to make a profit when you sell.

If you’re a real estate investor with questions about using demographic data, investing in properties, or you’re looking for an investment partner, contact us. We’re experts at helping investors find the money they need to invest in properties with promise.

Single Family Houses – The 5 Biggest Private Equity Buyers in America

Right now, the single biggest trend in Real Estate is private equity moving into the single-family house market.

What exactly does this mean for the “Mom and Pop” operations that buy sell lease manage and renovate single family homes all over the country? Well, it could mean any number of things. If you are paying attention and are aware of what the Big Boys are doing you can use this information to your advantage. If you live in one of the popular markets like Phoenix AZ, then you have already felt the impact.

Single Family Home investors and property managers find themselves bidding on the same property as a major fund. You might get a call from a fund that wants to buy your portfolio. You could end up partnering with a fund as its local operator. You never know.

Phoenix was the first city that had just about all the major private equity firms investing in single family houses. Private equity helped drive prices in Phoenix up by 34% as you can read about in this Bloomberg article here. The next city that attracted just about all the major private equity firms was Atlanta GA. Other popular markets are CA, Chicago and Florida. PE firms are looking for markets that have experienced the biggest bubbles that have resulted in the biggest swings in values.

We call those non-linear markets. The goal is to hold properties as rentals and wait for a housing recovery. These funds are averaging about an 8% return on investment where most major multi-family / apartment funds return about 5 or 6%. Linear markets like Tulsa OK, Louisville KY, Indianapolis IN, Fort Worth TX, Columbus OH, and Kansas City have been somewhat overlooked by the biggest players. However, there are plenty of funds coming into the linear markets with up to $50 million (which is considered a small fund) to spend on houses.

The Biggest Buyers

1. Blackstone Group is by far the biggest buyer of single-family houses with an estimated $2.5 billion totaling up to 16,000 single-family houses and they are currently in Atlanta GA, Chicago IL, Las Vegas NV, Phoenix AZ, and Inland Empire, LA, Sacremento Valley, Bay Area, Central Valley California, Miami Orlando and Tampa, FL. Charlotte NC. They Started a Company called Invitation Homes that leases and manages their portfolio. Blackstone has an additional $10 Billion or so that they intend on investing in houses.

2. The Alaskan Permanent Fund has raised over $600 million to invest with American homes 4 rent and so far, they have purchased around 3,100 single-family houses. and they are looking to bring their total number of houses up to 4,700. American homes 4 rent is in the following marketplaces: Cincinnati OH, Phoenix AZ, Atlanta GA. The Alaskan fund has about $40 billion in total assets.

3. Carrington Holding Company and Oaktree Capital Management have partnered up to purchase and manage single family rentals as you can read about in this business week article. With almost $600 million invested into a total of 4,500 single-family houses and they are currently in Chicago IL, Miami FL, Phoenix AZ and Las Vegas NV.

4. Colony Capital has about $500 million invested into 5,500 single family houses and they are in Arizona, Nevada, California, Georgia, Colorado, Texas and Florida. Colony American homes is the name of their Property Management company.

5. Waypoint Real Estate Group and GI Partners have somewhere around $400 million invested into 4,000 single-family houses and they are currently in Atlanta GA, Phoenix AZ, Chicago IL, and California. Waypoint Homes is the name of their operator.

Pros And Cons of Section 8 For Real Estate Investors

Section 8 housing has been controversial with real estate investors since its inception in the 1930s as a response to the Great Depression. The program has evolved ever since, and today its main purpose is to provide low-income Americans with subsidized housing. There’s a lot to consider about the program in general, including the pros and cons for real estate investors.

Pro: Stable Rent Payments

This is perhaps the biggest advantage of the program. Landlords can count on getting 70%-100% of the rent from vouchers given by the government. There are, of course, glitches in the payment system at times, but while it can take time for these payments to come through, they do always come.

The real advantage here is the possibility of mitigating some of the risks in getting tenants who don’t pay reliably. The 2020 pandemic has also highlighted situations where it could be possible to have difficulty collecting rent from even the most reliable private tenants even after the most stringent background checks.

Otherwise reliable tenants are being furloughed from their jobs unexpectedly, through no fault of their own, and state governments are even issuing regulations forbidding evictions during the pandemic or putting a halt to all public hearing evictions.

Pro: Incentives

Naturally, any investor is hoping (and actively looking) for tenants who will take care of their property, but the definition of “maintain” can be open to interpretation and vary from place to place. One of the advantages of getting a Sec. 8 tenant is that their obligations are laid out specifically in the law. Since violating these regulations means a tenant risks losing eligibility for the program, there’s at least some incentive against actively damaging a unit.

Pro: Long-Term Renters

This is a general rule and not a given, but renters under this program tend to stay longer than private pay tenants, and especially if they like the management or landlord and the property itself. This can mean lower vacancy rates.

Pro: Large Pool of Renters

As of the government’s latest accounting, there are 10.4 million people and 5.4 million households participating in the program. For properties in a geographic area with a smaller pool of private paying tenants, this can be a serious advantage.

For would-be investors, it’s always wise to look for properties in locations with lots of jobs and the kind of amenities that draw a good pool of responsible private renters. For property owners who are already stuck with a property in an area where it’s difficult to rent, Section 8 may be something to consider.

Con: Dealing With Bureaucracy

Perhaps the biggest disadvantage when dealing with any government program is the vast amount of red tape involved. It can be enormously costly to qualify your property and maintain it to the standard, and all the bureaucracy is one of the biggest reasons for this. There are inspections to arrange, lots of paperwork to fill out, and some stringent owner responsibilities that have to be followed at every step.

Con: Payment Delays

While payments are reliable, there can be delays, and there’s little you can do about this. When a tenant initially moves in, the first payment from the government won’t even show up for 30-60 days. This is not in itself an insurmountable issue, of course, as the prepared investor can work around this. It is very important to be aware of this, however, and to factor it into all calculations regarding cash flow and profitability.

Con: Constant Inspections

The inspection form and checklist from the Housing Choice Voucher Program is enough to highlight this disadvantage. Even some of the best rehabbers can fail their first inspection since HUD is notoriously strict. It’s often easier to rent property to private tenants for this reason alone.

Con: Increased Wear and Tear

While the Sec. 8 rules do have specific penalties that incentivize tenants against damaging property or appliances, it’s also more common to see higher wear and tear on a property with tenants from this program.

Some tenants clearly feel less invested in a property when they pay little or even none of the rent. Naturally, there are some very careful and responsible Sec. 8 tenants just as there are unreliable private tenants: but the general trend is for greater wear and tear on properties.

Con: Difficulty Dealing With Delinquent Tenants

The positive of renting under this program is that the majority of the rent is guaranteed by the government. The downside is the difficulty of going through the convoluted and lengthy eviction process should the tenant become delinquent on whatever portion of the rent they are responsible to pay.

In these cases, it’s not unheard of for landlords to simply settle for less profit rather than try to go through the bureaucratic process of getting the tenant removed, which is followed by another lengthy navigation of red tape to get a new tenant. Private renters can also be delinquent, of course, but the process of removing a private tenant is normally going to be less costly.

Con: Little Recourse for Damage

While incentives are there to prevent major damage, that’s not the whole story. The nature of the program means that most participants will not be financially able to pay for any damage they might cause to the property. Often the only real recourse is for the landlord to charge higher rent and attempt to recoup the losses that way.

The Upshot

Overall, HUD’s housing program is a risky venture for an investor, and for most, the cons will outweigh the pros. While there are some advantages, there are even more disadvantages and risks inherent to the program. For most property investors, choosing a good location and rehabbing it well means you’re likely to make more renting to private individuals.

This doesn’t mean it’s impossible to turn a profit with the Sec. 8 program, and some landlords have done very well. What it does mean is that it’s even more important than usual to know exactly what you’re getting into, do all your due diligence (and then maybe do it again), and seek advice from experts and local landlords before entering the program.