Rising Interest Rates and Commercial Real Estate

Investors are keeping a sharp eye on interest rates as they are a major factor to leverage returns. Rates have rapidly climbed over the last few months, and it is expected this trend will continue through 2022 and well into 2023. At the start of the year, interest rates for investment properties were between 3.5% and 4%. In four short months, we are seeing rates inching closer to 8%.

What does this mean for real estate?

Increasing interest rates make borrowing more expensive, therefore impacting investors’ desired return. Investors are forced to offset the higher cost of financing with a lower purchase price on real estate. As rates climb, cap rates usually follow, which puts downward pressure on pricing. Unlike the 10-year treasury and interest rates, cap rates do not see daily volatility. There is usually a lag between the time it takes the market to see cap rates increase from interest rate hikes alone.

The aggressive interest-rate increases are a direct move to combat inflation, the highest we’ve seen in four decades. The general rule of thumb is that higher interest rates are usually a response to higher inflation, which could have a positive impact on real estate income growth. Even though rates are trending upwards, which impacts what investors can pay, they will be focused on pushing rents to keep valuations high.

Economists expect rates to continue rising over the next 1-2 years, potentially reaching the 6% – 8% range. This could have a drastic impact on cap rates. Luckily, with low vacancy and little new construction in commercial real estate, it doesn’t create the same problem we saw during the Great Recession with over-supply. Investors will be more focused on increasing rents than being cap rate driven for values, which caused cap rate compression over the last few years.

An increase in values over the past twelve months have forced lenders to tighten their underwriting — the loan-to-values (LTV — amount of a loan compared to appraised value) we have seen in the past no longer worked! Currently we are seeing 55% – 65% LTV rather than the 65% – 75% during the last few years. Lenders are being more cautious with rising rates, cap rate compression, increased values, and the changing environment we face with headwinds in the debt markets.

Increasing interest rates make borrowing more expensive, therefore impacting investors’ desired return.

Positive vs negative leverage

Sellers can anticipate investors showing more caution and patience if they need debt until 2022 unfolds and the impact on values is revealed. It becomes difficult to use debt today if it creates negative leverage, meaning debt is at a cost that eats into cash flow, reducing the cash-on-cash return compared to an all cash return. Typically, debt is used to maximize the return, which means investors need positive leverage. That doesn’t happen when you are buying at a 5% cap rate and borrowing at a 4.75% interest rate. To determine positive or negative leverage, you divide your annual loan payment by your loan amount to generate a loan constant. Based on the loan constant, you will know the minimum cap rate needed to generate positive leverage.

For example, if you bought a $5,000,000 property with 60% LTV, your loan would be $3,250,000. If you had a 30-year amortization with a 4% interest rate your annual debt service is $186,192 [$186,192 debt service/$3,250,000 loan amount = 5.73% loan constant]. This means you must buy a property at a higher cap rate than 5.73% to get positive leverage.

A 5.50% cap rate on $5,000,000 generates $275,000 of net income, less the $186,192 debt service, would leave you with $88,808 in cash flow. Take that $88,808 and divide it by your down payment of $1,750,000 and you have a 5.07% cash-on-cash return – which is less than the 5.50% cap rate, meaning that loan generated negative leverage.

On the other hand, a 6.00% cap rate on a $5,000,000 property would generate $300,000 of net income, less the $186,192 of debt service and you have $113,808 in cash flow. Divide that by the $1,750,000 down payment and you have a 6.50% cash-on-cash return – which is more than the 6.00% cap rate, meaning that loan generated positive leverage.

This concept is important to understand because it is what drives buyers to pay lower prices and have higher cap rates – making debt work to get positive leverage. Otherwise, bringing debt into a deal may not be advantageous to the borrower at current pricing and interest rates.

As we move forward in 2022, we may not see the movement in values right away, but sellers and buyers will soon enough find themselves at a crossroad of having to understand debt market pressure of increased interest rates and what buyers can (and will) actually pay. Sellers still find themselves in a great position to sell, as the amount of capital in the market is aggressively looking for real estate to hedge inflation. Today’s environment of changing rates and inflation causes uncertainty in stocks, cash, and other alternatives, whereas real estate is viewed as a much safer investment alternative.

What are the Pros and Cons of Owning an Apartment Complex?

How to Purchase an Apartment Complex

Investing in an apartment complex is one of the most time-tested ways to build wealth. In fact, multifamily investing has an incredible array of benefits, including cash flow, the ability to finance properties with a limited amount of money down, and incredible tax benefits (just to name a few). However, apartment investing isn’t always sunshine and daisies; investors have to put in a lot of hard work to make sure their properties turn a profit. In this article, we’ll discuss some of the major pros and cons of owning an apartment complex. That way, you can make a more informed decision as to whether acquiring a multifamily property is a good fit for your personal investment needs.

The Benefits of Apartment Complex Ownership

As we just mentioned, apartment ownership can have a wide variety of benefits. Some of the most substantial benefits include:

Cash flow: While some types of investments, such as dividend stocks and annuities, provide some degree of payments to investors, they generally don’t hold a candle to the amount of cash generated by apartment buildings.

Leverage: Apartments have the massive benefit of allowing borrowers to put down around 20% to 30% of the sale price while financing the rest over a 25-30 year amortization period. In general, stocks, bonds, mutual funds and other types of investment opportunities offer nothing of the sort. 

Tax Incentives: Multifamily real estate is an ideal investment from a tax perspective. Not only can investors take substantial mortgage interest and depreciation deductions, but they can also often deduct travel and utility costs, as well as other expenses.

Equity growth: Just like a single-family home, as time goes on, an investor will generally build up equity in their property as their mortgage is paid off. In addition, equity will increase if the property itself increases in value.

Syndication/partnership potential: While most stock or bond investors invest by themselves, apartment complexes are an ideal investment for groups. By teaming up with other investors, you can purchase larger and better properties, maximizing your potential profits.

Supplementary income: Though rental payments from tenants are typically the most substantial source of income for an apartment complex, other sources of income can make a serious difference. The most common supplemental income sources include laundry machines, vending machines, and parking spots for non-residents (which can be particularly profitable in upscale urban areas).

The Downsides of Apartment Complex Ownership 

While owning a multifamily property has tons of advantages, it has a number of potential downsides as well, including:

Time investment: Selecting, financing, and purchasing an apartment complex can take months. And, while you can hire a property management company to take care of many of the day-to-day responsibilities of apartment ownership post-purchase, you’ll still need to spend a certain amount of time supervising the management company to ensure your investment remains profitable.

Local market factors: While smart multifamily investors are careful to purchase real estate in great locations (or locations that seem to be trending towards greatness), no one can predict the future. For instance, the neighborhood you thought was gentrifying could see an increase in crime and poverty, leading to a steep decline in the value of your investment.

Vacancies and tenant issues: While tenants generally provide 95% or more of the income generated by an apartment property, they can also cause serious headaches. Even tenants with great credit and long-term leases sometimes leave unexpectedly, not to mention those who fail to pay their rent, or worse, cause significant damage to your property.

Liability: While smart property owners always have a robust insurance policy, owners still could potentially be held liable for accidents and crimes that occur on the property. This risk is basically non-existent for comparable investments such as stocks, bonds, or real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Maintenance expenses: From windows and railings to appliances and lightbulbs, apartment buildings often need constant maintenance, and landlords are responsible for paying for it. While insurance may cover larger items, maintenance, repair, and replacement costs are still a significant expense.

Low liquidity: Unlike stocks or bonds, you can’t simply click to sell an apartment building– and, even if you could, you might not get the price you want. Multifamily properties often take several months to sell, and closing can be a time-intensive process.

Apartment Investing is a Great Opportunity, But It Isn’t For Everyone

Owning an apartment property isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. The ideal apartment owner/investor has a decent level of risk-tolerance, a strong work ethic, good critical thinking skills, and a willingness to work with numbers. However, if you possess the factors mentioned above (or at least a few of them), purchasing an apartment building could be an excellent choice—and a great way to provide income for you and your family for years to come.